Dear INFORMS, Boston Chapter Members,
Please join us for a fascinating upcoming talk by Dr. Sam L. Savage on Wednesday, 20 April 2022. The Zoom session will begin at 6:30 pm and the talk will be virtual beginning at 7:00 pm
eLocation: https://marketplace.zoom.us/apps/ViT60ZmbTpWGGWFt9CuUUw
Title: "Chancification: Wiring Your Organization for Probability"
Abstract: Electrification replaces technologies using fossil fuels with those using electricity. Chancification replaces calculations based on numbers with those based on uncertainties. Just as electrification allows experts to generate energy to illuminate the light bulbs of non-experts, Chancification allows statisticians and analysts to generate stochastic data to illuminate the chance-informed decisions of non-technical managers. This is easier said than done, and requires the discipline of probability management, in which uncertainties are represented as data that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability. The first approach, which evolved from the field of stochastic optimization entails the storage of coherent Monte Carlo trials, which may be shared across the enterprise. A recent approach uses F Inverse (Quantile) functions driven by a portable pseudo random number generator, which produces identical sequences of random variates across platforms. Topics included in this presentation: The Flaw of Averages, The Arithmetic of Uncertainty, The HDR Generator, The Metalog Distribution and ChanceCalc. No statistical background will be assumed, but for those with extensive training in the field, this presentation will repair the damage.
Bio: Dr. Sam L. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012), and Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages (2022). He is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. Dr. Savage is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. This served as a basis for the nonprofit's open SIPmath™ Standard, which has been adopted by software firms such as Frontline Systems and Lumina Decision Systems. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Kaiser Permanente, Highmark Health, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a co-founding board member. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University, then began his career as a mathematician at the General Motors Research Laboratory. From there he taught at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business for 15 years before moving to Stanford in 1990. He is currently an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering and is also a Fellow of the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. Throughout his career, Dr. Savage has consulted widely to industry and served as an expert in litigation. His writing reflects his experiences on both the academic and practical side of what he calls "The Algebraic Curtain separating Managers from Management Science."
In his own words Dr. Savage says:
"I am not a dispassionate observer, but a promoter who models himself after that great medieval huckster, Fibonacci, who foisted Hindu-Arabic numerals on an unsuspecting Western Civilization in 1199. At ProbabilityManagement.org, we are trying to create the Hindu-Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty."
Cost: none
For more information contact: L. Servi (President, Boston INFORMS Chapter), lservi@mitre.org
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Daniel O. Rice, PhD, MBA
INFORMS Boston Program Chair
Senior Principal Scientist II
FAST Labs™, BAE Systems
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