As Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analysis, I am delighted to announce the Special Recognition Award for the best paper in the journal in 2019, plus two finalists.
2019 Winner
Yuyu Fan, David V. Budescu, David Mandel, Mark Himmelstein
Improving Accuracy by Coherence Weighting of Direct and Ratio Probability Judgments
Volume 16, Issue 3, September 2019
https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2018.0388
Description: Since the early work of Bob Winkler, there has been considerable research on how to combine expert probability assessments of an event into an improved probability. Typically probabilities are weighted based on the expert's credibility and past historical performance. More recent work finds evidence that an expert's probability assessment should also be weighted based on coherence; i.e, based on the degree to which probability assessments are consistent with the rules of probability. This paper extends that work to distributions of continuous events, with different partitioning and more generic weighting methods. The authors also looked at whether coherence weights derived from one set of items would be effective with a different set of test items. They close with suggestions for future research. The members of the award-selection committee hope that this award encourages further work in this important area.
2019 Finalists
Mark Schneider, Cary Deck, Mikhael Shor, Tibor Besedeš, Sudipta Sarangi
Optimizing Choice Architectures
Volume 16, Issue 1, March 2019
https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2018.0379
Manel Baucells, Rakesh K. Sarin
The Myopic Property in Decision Models
Volume 16, Issue 2, June 2019
https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2018.0384
Many thanks to the 2019 Award Selection Committee:
Andrea Hupman (chair), Robert Bordley, John Butler, and Eva Regnier
------------------------------
Vicki Bier
Professor
University of Wisconsin
Madison WI
------------------------------