The early trickle of new coronavirus infections has turned into a steady current. By creating simple simulations...
Multiple folks from the System Dynamics (SD) community have built models. Tom Fiddaman also made a video
Tom Fiddaman's model/videohttps://metasd.com/2020/03/community-coronavirus-model-bozeman/
Jeroen Struben's modelhttps://forio.com/app/jeroen_struben/corona-virus-covid19-seir-simulator/index.html#introduction.htmlTom Fiddaman's review of Struben's modelhttps://metasd.com/2020/03/interactive-coronavirus-models/
Bob Eberlein will be presenting his work this Friday, March 27th 2-3PM ET in a Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) System Dynamics Collective Learning Meeting (CLM). I am waiting on details from him about the presentation. Please follow/join WPI SD for more info
Below is a link to sign up to be on the WPI System Dynamics Club mailing list:
Wish you and yours health and happiness!Sincerely,Christine TangWPI System Dynamics Social Media ManagerInterdisciplinary PhD Student in System Dynamics
Forgot to share the System Dynamics Society's page on COVID-19 with INFORMS folks...and I should share the INFORMS page on COVID-19 with SD folkshttps://www.systemdynamics.org/covid-19
Join us online Friday, March 27th, 2:00 - 3:00 PM ET (Boston time) through: https://wpi.zoom.us/j/389429908 See (far) below for call in details. In this week's Collective Learning Meeting (CLM), Dr. Bob Eberlein (firstname.lastname@example.org) will present: "Understanding the Unknown: Trying to make COVID-19 discussion as transparent as possible" Abstract: There is a great deal of fear and uncertainty associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the concern is certainly justified, but our ability to understand what is coming is very limited. Some of this is due to the nature of the disease itself. COVID-19 has a clear, but not clearly understood, period of asymptomatic transmission, and it is still not understood how many individuals can carry and pass the virus without ever showing symptoms. Further, with roughly 20% of infections being severe, the load on the health care system is, as have been evidenced in Italy, potentially overwhelming. This is, of course, exacerbated by the potential for hospital workers themselves to be overwhelmed by the disease as happened in Wuhan. Putting this together into a coherent framework with a model that transparently allows people to experiment with both policies and epidemiological assumption provides a lens into what might unfold and what can be done. The talk will focus on exploring that model and showing the ways in which it can inform our understanding of what is happening around us. Biography: Bob Eberlein is Co-President at isee systems. He holds a PhD from MIT in Applied Economics and System Dynamics. He has been teaching, consulting, and developing software in support of System Dynamics for over 30 years. He has done modeling in a variety of areas including demography, chronic disease progression, and health care system responses.
Meeting ID: 389 429 908 One tap mobile +16699006833,,389429908# US (San Jose) +16468769923,,389429908# US (New York) Dial by your location +1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose) +1 646 876 9923 US (New York) Meeting ID: 389 429 908 Find your local number: https://wpi.zoom.us/u/aeDnliV9pj Join by SIP email@example.com Join by H.323 184.108.40.206 (US West) 220.127.116.11 (US East) 18.104.22.168 (China) 22.214.171.124 (India Mumbai) 126.96.36.199 (India Hyderabad) 188.8.131.52 (EMEA) 184.108.40.206 (Australia) 220.127.116.11 (Hong Kong) 18.104.22.168 (Brazil) 22.214.171.124 (Canada) 126.96.36.199 (Japan) Meeting ID: 389 429 908 If you are interested in presenting at our CLM, please contact Christine Tang (firstname.lastname@example.org).
The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
phone 1 443-757-3500
phone 2 800-4INFORMS (800-446-3676)