# INFORMS Open Forum

## Call for Forecasters in a Clinical Trial Prediction Study

• #### 1.  Call for Forecasters in a Clinical Trial Prediction Study

Posted 10 days ago

Dear Colleagues,

We invite you to participate as forecasters in a new prediction tournament focused on clinical trials. Forecasters will be asked to estimate the probability of clinical trial progression of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments for various diseases. The study is supported by two grants from the National Science foundation. It is structured as a horse race between machine models, led by PI Sauleh Siddiqui at American University, and human crowdsourcing methods, let by Co-PIs Pavel Atanasov (that's me) and Regina Joseph.

Our focus is on biomedical innovation and clinical development: predicting which vaccines and treatments will proceed toward approval in clinical trials. Our questions will cover COVID-19, as well as other infectious, cardiovascular, neurological diseases, and cancer. We are interested in recruiting both subject matter experts and non-experts. The only requirement is that forecasters are at least 18 years old.

If you think colleagues or acquaintances may be interested in prediction, clinical trials or both, please forward this message.

Forecasters' participation will help advance the study of prediction, including reference class forecasting and probabilistic reasoning. Forecasters will also receive information, training and feedback that may help them improve their prediction skills. Finally, the most active and accurate forecasters may win prizes of up to $1,000. The total prize purse is$14,000.

Forecaster time commitment: The first tournament starts on September 15 and ends in February 2021. Recruitment will continue through the month of September. The tournament will feature approximately 50 questions. To be eligible for prizes, forecasters must answer at least 25 questions. On their first session, forecasters will undergo a battery of online assessments of thinking and decision-making styles, receive forecasting training, and make their first forecasts. This initial process will take approximately three hours in total. After that, questions will be released in two additional batches. Apart from these, most forecasters will likely spend approximately half an hour or less per week.

We would be happy to answer questions you may have, at Pavel Atanasov pavel@pytho.io.

Regards,

Pavel Atanasov, Regina Joseph & Sauleh Siddiqui